My Senate Preditions for 2006

I have looked at the first quarter Senate campaign finances, and am happy with what I see. This is the list of fundraising that Democrats and Republicans have done for the Senate race this fall, including (and most importantly) their current cash on hand. Here’s what I found:

There are 10 races where the Democrat is set, with a combined $49,967,872 (Hillary has 19,703,421 of this, and will be saving for the Presidential unfortunately). On the other hand, 6 Republicans are set, with $15,639,020 cash on hand (Note: Lugar doesn’t have his numbers listed). There are 11 Races where money is needed for Democrats to help them win. Republicans are sitting on a large cash advantage here. Democrats could spread some money here and help out a lot.

All in all, I think that the only seat changes are as follows:

Pennsylvania: Santorum (R) loses to Bob Casey (D)

Montana: Burns (R) loses to John Morrison (D)

Rhode Island: Chaffee (R) loses to Whitehouse (D)

Ohio: Mike DeWine (R) loses to Sherrod Brown (D)

Missouri: Jim Talent (R) loses to Clare McCaskill (D)

These 5 are backed up by Rasmussen Reports, which tends to lean conservative.

I’m not as sure about John Ensign of Nevada losing to Carter, who is way behind with money. I also think the Dems can hold their positions. Not many seem to threatened, except in New Jersey and perhaps Minnesota. I think Dems will pick up 4-5 seats, because they might not overturn Nevada, and might lose on of the two just mentioned. I’d love to see 5 seats, tying us. This would mean Chaffee, a true moderate Republican, would be gone, so we wouldn’t really have too many moderate Republicans left. More moderate estimates still have Dems getting 2-3, noting Santorum was dead on arrival, Chaffee has problems in RI, and Burns might be arrested before the race, and if not, is in bad shape. I doubt Dems get all 6 pick ups, but it’s early, and I’m curious to see how my predictions stack up.