Dems gains in 2006

As previously mentioned, the Democrats need to win 16 seats from the Republicans in order to gain control of the House of Representatives. I have been hopeful of this, and I don't think it's overly aggressive. Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington analyst, has predicted that the Democrats could gain 4-6 seats this November. She recently increased her predictions to 5-8 seats.

Confidence in Republican leadership, nationwide, is declining. I haven't looked at all of the numbers and challengers nationwide, but I have in New York. In New York’s 29th District, the incumbent is Republican Randy Kuhl, now finishing his first term in office. He won in 2004 with 51% of the vote. The fact that less voters come out for interim elections makes it hard to predict this November's turnout, but you have to assume that the challenger is more likely to come out with full force. On the other hand, the incumbents’ supporters would be more comfortable in office, and therefore less aggressive (at least its happened in the local elections by my school in Fairfield, Ct). But even regardless of turnout, the decline in Republican support on the national scale should turn over this district to the Democrats. And it seems like there have to be more districts out there for the Dems to get, I’m hopeful for double digit gains. Hopefully I'm closer to right.